Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Trading Euro currency futures (M6E , 6E) afterhours. Cut losses short, let profit run

Currencies trade fairly volatile during US after-hours because of European and Asian market opens. I had a technical signal to the long side, entered 1 contract long, and have eliminated risk (following system rules). Below is a chart of the position, stop and target. Following, I want to discuss the often mentioned concept of cutting losses short and letting profits run.

One of the earliest lesson you learn as a trader is to cut your losses short. In practice, this is only applied by a traders who are systematic and successful. For most traders, emotions come into play and they decide to adjust their stop to let their trade "work out". Once they are in the hole with their position, they begin to falsely rationalize the trade, making it out to be better than what it truly is. Don't lie to yourself, if a trade is bad, admit it and move on, the little loss won't impact you, you'll forget about it sooner than you think.

In my opinion, trading is simple. You take calculated risks, admit you're wrong when you're wrong and admit you're right when you're right. When I first started, I would be so afraid of giving back profit on a position that I would close it out for no reason, just to secure profit. Nothing invalidated my trade. I just got out because I was afraid of losing money. I approached profits emotionally. Same thing on the loss side, except that I was so afraid to admit a loss on my track record that I would adjust my stop against myself to let trades work out. Sometimes they would, most of the time they wouldn't. The times they wouldn't, a "normal" stop of $25 turned into an abnormal stop of $250 because I moved my stop like an amateur.

What I developed was a system to have an initial risk that is small and a way of constantly reducing that risk as the position was validated. If the trade was invalidated, you exit. If I take a system entry, 80% of the time I am able to trade risk free after the position validates. The times that I take a full stop is when I don't follow system rules and enter randomly, not according to the system. According to my rules, I can be wrong 7.14 times in a row and the one correct trade that meets target will erase the losses from the 7.14 losing trades. Now, with system entry rules and patience, you shouldn't have that many losses in a row, because the entry rules are so strict in the first place, that when a trade is triggered, it validated 80% of the time.

I will update with what happened with this position. Have a goodnight!

No comments:

Post a Comment