Monday, March 5, 2012

How to keep your charts simple yet very powerful and informative

The most important thing when analyzing charts is to know what's going on. You don't want to be confused with too many indicators and have information overload. I keep things very simple. My main chart is the 5 minute chart. I have 1 indicator on the chart, a 20 day EMA.

I also have levels that I find significant. I utilize prior and current day's price levels as well as institutional numbers.

When I look at my chart at a specific time I follow this process:

1) Where is price in relation to the levels?
2) What is the current price structure? (Context, as Al Brooks calls it)
3) What is the highest probability setup taking the price and structure into account?

I enter about 90% of my trades with a Stop Limit order, thinking that I want to be swept into the move. I very rarely use limit orders. The only time I use limit orders is if the price structure suggestions a range and that the probability of the breakout is very low. I don't take these trade often, because trading in ranges usually leaves to overtrading and frustration, but I do take limit trades once in a while.

Here is what my chart looks like:


Next, I have my "rules".
1) Try to trade on the side that price is in relation to the EMA, unless we're in a range and the EMA keeps going from green to red to red to green, suggesting chop / no dominant trend
2) If below PDH, look for shorts / buyer failure. If above PDH, look for longs / seller failure (breakouts up)
3) If above PDL, look for longs / seller failure. If below PDL, look for short / buyer failure (breakouts down)
4) Rarely assume a current HOD or LOD will break by only 1 tick if there's a dominant trend. You are catching a falling knife in this scenario.
5) If the structure agrees, a 1 or 2 tick break of HOD or LOD may signal a stop run. You want to fade the HOD / LOD breakout in this case.
6) Try to visualize what happened and what is likely to happen. If the market is selling off hard, assume three pushes to the downside, don't try to buy until sellers are exhausted.
7) Be realistic with targets. Don't expect a 20 point move in a range, never assume the market needs to reverse or do something.
8) KNOW THE STRUCTURE / CONTEXT. Know what to expects in a bull / bear channel / wedge. Always trade with reasonable targets. The guy going for a home run every time never wins.
9) Know when to trade. Know your environment.

Easy to read screens have improved my trading dramatically. I started out trying every indicator with no success, I ended on almost no indicators with much better results.

The question that all traders have is "ok, so when do I enter". I have a few ways that I enter the market. The more advanced way / technical way is using Al Brooks, H1, H2, L1, L2 entries. They're simple, you enter on the break of the previous 5 min high / low. An H1 / L1 is that 1st time that this occurs in a pullback. An H2 / L2 is the 2nd time this occurs in a pullback. The highest probability one is entering an H2 / L2 around the 20 day EMA. That's it.

Another entry that I have, which occurs 0-4 times a day is a buyer / seller failure trade (FBO). This is recognizing the FBO or stop hit, and then entering the market with a max stop of 2 points and having your stop below / above the failure swing. I will try to discuss the entries in more detail in the coming weeks.

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