Counter Trend Trade 7/20/11: $100 Risk, $615 Profit

Here is a position I just entered after-hours on 7/20/11. The trade is a counter trend trade, with "initial" short signals being given. The risk on the position is $100 and the profit potential is $615. I want to be very cautious when taking counter trend positions, therefore my stop is currently at the major swing with a reduction to the following major swing likely once conviction in the short direction occurs, if it does. Here is the chart, I will update what decisions were made / what happened in the morning! Good night!

Trend Pullback Trade: NQ 7/14/11 Results: $650 Profit

I took a long pullback trade last night after hours. I held it into today's RTH, with a profit target expectation around 2375.00. After seeing a somewhat sideways market environment, we decided to take our profit on both contracts and end for the day since we exceeded our goal for the day by over 3x. We had a profit of $650 today and have $1,510 profit on the week so far.

How to recognize and trade a trend: 7-13-11 results and analysis

This video shows you how I recognize new trends and how I trade them. It's an NQ emini position trade that was eventually averaged up, best case scenario $830 profit, worst case scenario $430 profit.

How to trade a range / sideways market: Daily trading recap 7/12/11 $135 Profit

Here is the 7/12/11 daily trading recap video. I discussed how I trade a range / sideways market, and mentioned when I enter and exit positions during a range.

7/11/11 Trade Results: 2 Positions, $295 Profit- Continued- Live VIDEO

The video includes a live trade position from 7/11/11 with real-time analysis and review of a trade taken after-hours the night before.

Part 1



Part 2



Let me know if you have any question!

7/11/11 Trade Results: 2 Positions, $295 Profit

We had two position trades taken. 1 was after-hours last night for a loss of $85 and one for a profit of $380, resulting in a net profit of $295.

I posted a real-time video of the trades on youtube, they will be linked to the blog later today. In the video, I explain the reason for entering the trade, provide real-time analysis, and live trade management.

$1000 Profit, $85 risk : NQ Emini futures position trade- 7/10/11 Live Video- Update 2

Here is a video of the progress of the position that we initiated earlier this evening.



Please let me know if you have any questions, input, ideas, etc!

Talk to you tomorrow during RTH!

Tim
HT Trading

How to trade Nasdaq futures: After hours position trade- $400 profit, $50 risk. Update 1

Here is the chart showing the progress of this position, we are currently approximately $105 in the money on this trade within about 1 hour. We have adjusted our stop up so that there is absolutely zero risk of loss on this position now. Also, we are attempting to average up at 2396 (limit to buy pending), which will bring our average price to around 2394.50. We will adjust our stop above average entry following a fill.

 

One thing to note is that we missed our Wave 1 average up opportunity. We are now trying to add a 2nd contract on a Wave 2 signal. This can be risky because it increases our average price and we have a higher probability of getting stopped by a tail than if we averaged up at the Wave 1 point.

How to trade Nasdaq futures: After hours position trade- $400 profit, $50 risk.

I want to share a current position that we have open. We are long 1 NQ contract with a risk of 2.5 points and a return of 20 points. The chart shows where our invalidation point is, below the swing low (where our stop is placed).

The thing about this trade is that we feel it may be the last wave of buyers coming in on a bigger picture (i.e. last wave of buying pressure before a correction. This will be true if the following holds:
- We fail to break the swing high on the 60 min
- We breach our swing low on the 60 min preceded by a bull failure.

Due to this, we have our stop where it is at, not at our maximum of 6 points. We feel this trade is a "stab" at the rally, but if we are wrong and sellers depress prices / buyers are unable to support price, we cut it short and take a loss at $50.

The assumption for this position is that a higher low will be placed in by buyers (where taking heat is not a concern as long as our stop is not triggered), and a break of the swing high at 2393.75. This break is:
a) A long signal
b) A confirmation signal if we are in the trade prior to the long signal (i.e. seeing buyers stepping in, having a reduced risk / increased reward ratio upon support presence, etc)

If the stop is triggered, we step back and analyze the bigger picture, i.e. our 6 minute chart, waiting for a break out of the consolidation range. We wait for definitive direction to signal, then we enter. If we get stopped, our technical bias changes to short and we wait until tomorrow regarding fundamental bias. Therefore, this long position will be our only trade tonight / going into the open if we are able to Average Up contracts into the position.

In a future post I will discuss the difference in averaging up v. averaging down, why do which, and how to properly execute such a strategy.

Recognizing Change of Trend: Real-time example 7/8/11

As we mentioned in the previous post:

"A critical note to make is if we get stopped out at the level marked, this will resemble a bullish flag and an inability for sellers to resist price, therefore, our bias would change positive technically, but remain negative fundamentally. We would then buy the pullbacks with caution, and advise against trying to force the short trade since we had a B.O.T. long signal following a bullish flag and support of price by buyers."

We had a change of trend, buyers stepping in to support price. We got stopped out on 2 of the 3 contracts, meeting target on the 1st, for a net loss of $20 on that position.

Here is an example of what we said we're going to do if the above happens, buying the pullback in the bullish flag:

 

- Our risk is $35 maximum
- Our profit target will be at 10 points, or $200.
- 5.72 risk reward ratio initially

Current Real-Time Short Trade with Analysis: $470 profit potential

We are short 3 contracts, here is our trade details in real-time:

- $120 initial risk (this is our maximum risk)
- $470 initial return (this return can be increased if/when we run the 3rd contract)
- 3.92 risk-reward ratio initially. We eventually will adjust this to 470 times return to 0 risk.
- Our position is on the correct side of our fundamental bias analysis
- Our position is on the correct side of our longer term technical bias analysis
- We are analyzing that the uptrend on the 200 tick is a pull-up on our longer term chart, therefore an opportunity to short / continue with the dominant side (short) of the market.

We will continue updating the progress of this position, including real-time decisions and analysis of condition changes.

A critical note to make is if we get stopped out at the level marked, this will resemble a bullish flag and an inability for sellers to resist price, therefore, our bias would change positive technically, but remain negative fundamentally. We would then buy the pullbacks with caution, and advise against trying to force the short trade since we had a B.O.T. long signal following a bullish flag and support of price by buyers.

5 Minute Pullback trade example

Here is an example of a trade from today:

Our morning analysis concluded the following:
- Fundamental bias: Long
- Technical bias- Long

Due to this, following our system, we buy the pullbacks in the market. Above is an example of the 5 minute chart during the position. We have our stop at the invalidation point, risking $50 to make $200. As the trade goes in our favor, we will reduce the risk of $50, or 4 to 1 ratio, to $0 of a positive dollar amount. In theory, our risk to reward become 200 to 1 and/or even better when our stop is moved above our entry price.