We're following up from the last post to give you some actionable ideas on both sides.
In terms of individual names, the following setups look
interesting to us based on classic “Edwards and Magee”-style pattern
interpretation (the charts use weekly data):
For those betting on an acceleration in the relative performance of Biotechs versus Oil Services companies (Excursion):
Interesting Biotechs
on the long-side:
PBYI – A classic break of trend to the upside after a period
of consolidation following a heavy volume up-thrust:
NWBO – A classic long-term “basing” pattern, with a failed
short candle last week:
Interesting Energy Services Names on the Short Side:
NR – A classic topping pattern. Merely revisiting the point
of breakdown where “pissed-off longs” generally want their money back. Be
patient here and wait for a close below this week’s candle:
OGE – Ditto, but wait for a close below this week’s candle.
Now the flipside. For investors patient enough to wait for
the mean reversion (possibly already in progress), here are some long Energy
Services and short Biotech ideas.
Interesting Energy Services Longs:
GTLS – A classic break of trend with a new swing high. Stop
out if trade quickly reverts below $40.
MTRX – A classic break of trend near long-term support
levels:
HP - A classic break of trend with a new swing high. Stop out if trade quickly reverts below $70:
FI – A classic break of trend:
Interesting Biotech Shorts:
CELG – A classic break of trend to the downside:
AGIO – A classic break of support around $100. Disclosure: Author is Short AGIO in his personal account:
What this means for the market as a whole you might wonder?
Notice that the last two times we reached this extreme we
were either near a trough (’09) or near a peak in the market (’00). So there is
precedent that we are near an important inflection point for the market as a
whole. Given that we have been going up-Up-Up for over six years, one might
guess that the next major move is down. Classical market wisdom posits that
when there is great “disagreement” between important industries (re: Biotechs
and Oil Services), this is “unhealthy” for the market as a whole. Think back to
Energy and Materials versus Financials in ’07-08. Think back to Technology
versus Consumer Staples in ’99-’00.
For the Theorists …
An area of future work might include examining
all sector-sector combinations for max excursion to see if there is anything
more specific that we can conclude about 1. how long such phenomena last, and
2. what implications, if any, such extremes have for the market as a whole.
Keep in mind that, of late, Biotechs have had lower betas than Oil Services
companies. If we were to mean-revert, that would mean low-beta biotechs declining and high-beta Oil Services
companies rising. Since beta is a measure of correlated market
volatility, the mean reversion
scenario might argue for more market strength. Continued excursion might argue for an imminent crash. What
I find interesting is that the performance differential between Biotechs and
Oil Services accelerated after the U.S. Fed ended its Quantitative Easing
Program. And… as I write this, we are about two months from a “jawboned”
interest rate hike in June. But the market will likely make its move in advance of the June Fed meeting.
Whether the Fed actually raises rates in June probably matters less in terms of
subsequent market action than what happens leading
up to the meeting. This is why
we study price action. Much to the chagrin of our newspapers, financial
statements, periodicals, and journals, we use those to kindle fires.
Bryan
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