Friday, March 16, 2012

When to buy the highs and when to short the highs. Structure will dictate.

One of the most difficult things for traders is buying the highs. They are worried that the market will reverse to the downside because its over extended. What usually happens is that the trader will continue shorting the highs and get cut to death buy a 1000 papercuts. Every entry is short, thinking the market is due for a reversal.

The price structure / context of the price at the highs will dictate what one should be doing. Its never 100%, but it gives you a little bit of an edge if you trade the highs using the structure.

My rules for buying the highs:
1) Fundamentals and technicals are in bullish agreement. This way, you have both schools of thought buying into the market.
2) Where are magnets? Open, Institutional Number, PDH / PDL, etc.
3) The breakout of highs will result in a value area shift. For example, you are breaking previous days high and current days high at the same time. Probability of a break of few ticks (Buyer Failure) to take out stops is very low.
4) The structure dictates that the break of HOD agrees with the structural formation. A break of trend (BOT signal) in the direction of the HOD break increases the probability of a HOD long trade.


My rules for shorting the highs:
1) Fundamentals and technicals are not in agreement / don't have support from eachother. Technicals may be bullish but fundamentals bearish. This reduces probability of buying highs and increases probability of shorting highs.
2) Where are magnets? Open, Institutional Number, PDH / PDL, etc.
3) Breakout of highs doesn't shift value. For example, breaking of highs may be forming bullish channel, moving to upper trend line. And the breakout is likely to take out the stops at HOD (Buyer Failure) and then reverse back into the range price structure.
4) HOD break is not signaling a BOT, rather its continuing the structure of range, bull channel, wedge, etc.

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