I want to share a current position that we have open. We are long 1 NQ contract with a risk of 2.5 points and a return of 20 points. The chart shows where our invalidation point is, below the swing low (where our stop is placed).
The thing about this trade is that we feel it may be the last wave of buyers coming in on a bigger picture (i.e. last wave of buying pressure before a correction. This will be true if the following holds:
- We fail to break the swing high on the 60 min
- We breach our swing low on the 60 min preceded by a bull failure.
Due to this, we have our stop where it is at, not at our maximum of 6 points. We feel this trade is a "stab" at the rally, but if we are wrong and sellers depress prices / buyers are unable to support price, we cut it short and take a loss at $50.
The assumption for this position is that a higher low will be placed in by buyers (where taking heat is not a concern as long as our stop is not triggered), and a break of the swing high at 2393.75. This break is:
a) A long signal
b) A confirmation signal if we are in the trade prior to the long signal (i.e. seeing buyers stepping in, having a reduced risk / increased reward ratio upon support presence, etc)
If the stop is triggered, we step back and analyze the bigger picture, i.e. our 6 minute chart, waiting for a break out of the consolidation range. We wait for definitive direction to signal, then we enter. If we get stopped, our technical bias changes to short and we wait until tomorrow regarding fundamental bias. Therefore, this long position will be our only trade tonight / going into the open if we are able to Average Up contracts into the position.
In a future post I will discuss the difference in averaging up v. averaging down, why do which, and how to properly execute such a strategy.
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